Moderna stock remains under pressure as it seeks to expand its franchise of Covid shots.
XThe Food and Drug Administration will now allow second Covid booster shots from Moderna (MRNA) and Pfizer (PFE) with BioNTech (BNTX) for people age 50 and older five months after their first booster shots.
Further, Moderna said a one-quarter sized two-dose Covid vaccine series produced a similar level of virus-blocking antibodies in children age 6 and below as it did in adults. Meanwhile, rivals Pfizer and BioNTech are still waiting on the results for their three-dose series in children younger than age 5.
Moderna expects $21 billion in sales of its Covid shot this year, based on signed agreements. That also includes a potential $500 million for extra doses. The company is in negotiations for additional doses, and expects sales to be heavier in the second half of 2022.
Moderna is working on an omicron-specific booster and a multivalent vaccine to prevent the original virus and, possibly, multiple variants. But analysts expect Moderna's sales to peak this year and then decline until growing against in 2025.
Moderna is working on other vaccines that target HIV, the flu, respiratory syncytial virus and cytomegalovirus. It's also testing cancer drugs and recently inked a deal with privately held Carisma Therapeutics. That deal marries Moderna delivery system with Carisma's white blood cell technology.
So, all in all, is Moderna stock a buy or a sell today?
A Fundamental Look At Moderna Stock
The biotech company is banking on its messenger RNA, or mRNA, technology. Messenger RNA is a substance in the body that delivers the instructions for creating protein.
So-called spike proteins cover the type of coronavirus that causes Covid-19. Moderna's vaccine contains mRNA that tells the body to produce a structure similar to the spike protein. The idea is that this will trigger the immune system to create disease-fighting antibodies and T-cells.
Moderna has now been profitable for a year. In the fourth quarter, Moderna earned $11.29 per share on $7.21 billion in revenue. That included $6.9 billion in sales of its Covid vaccine, formally Spikevax. The company sold 297 million doses in the fourth quarter.
Both measures easily beat expectations and grew bullishly. But the future is still cloudy for Moderna. Its financials currently line up with CAN SLIM advice, which suggests investors look for companies with at least 20%-25% recent earnings and sales growth. But those metrics are expected to decline after 2022.
In the first quarter, analysts polled by FactSet expect Moderna to earn $6.03 per share on $4.52 billion in sales. Earnings would pop 112% and sales would run up 133%.
Moderna stock has a Composite Rating of 55 out of a best-possible 99. The Composite Rating is a measure of a stock's key fundamental and technical measures. So MRNA stock ranks in the top half of all stocks on that measure.
What Does 2020 Say About MRNA Stock?
Moderna stock went public at 23 in late 2018.
In 2020, shares rocketed more than 434%. The gain was less bullish in 2021 with shares rising 143%.
Fundamentals improved in 2021 following the late 2020 launch of Moderna's Covid vaccine. In 2021, Moderna earned $28.29 per share on $18.47 billion in sales. Earnings turned around from a year-earlier loss and sales skyrocketed.
Moderna expects $21 billion in sales of its Covid vaccine this year, plus a potential $500 million in optional doses. That number is likely to increase with Moderna in negotiations for additional doses. The company expects sales to be backend-loaded this year as Covid becomes endemic.
Now, MRNA stock analysts project $22.07 billion in 2022 sales and $27.61 in adjusted earnings per share. Sales would rise 19.5%, but earnings would dip 2%.
Moderna Stock: Technical Analysis
Moderna stock isn't currently forming a chart pattern, according to MarketSmith.com. Investors are encouraged to buy a stock when it tops a buy point.
Shares are trading in line with their 50-day moving average, but remain below their 200-day line.
Shares have a Relative Strength Rating of 21. The RS Rating is a 1-99 measure of a stock's 12-month performance. This means Moderna stock ranks in the lowest 21% of stocks on that metric.
MRNA stock also has an EPS Rating of 72, still reflecting years of per-share losses.
Keep tabs on IBD Digital for more on stock ratings.
Covid Vaccine Facing Competition
In late January, the FDA fully approved Moderna's Covid vaccine for adults. Pfizer and BioNTech have approval for people age 16 and older. This means those vaccines can stay on the market after the Covid pandemic ends. The companies can also change the price and market directly to consumers.
Now, the companies are launching a second round of boosters for people age 50 and older.
Meanwhile, it's possible Moderna will beat Pfizer to the finish line with a pediatric vaccine. Moderna's vaccine proved 43.7% effective against omicron infections in children age 6 months to under 2 years old. In children age 2 to under 6 years old, the vaccine was 37.5% effective. Side effects were minimal and there were no severe Covid cases among vaccinated children.
Pfizer and BioNTech are still in testing with their pediatric vaccine — a one-tenth sized three-shot series in children under the age of 5. They expect to have data in April, putting the launch likely in May.
Moderna is also updating its application to vaccinate teens age 12-17, and is actively submitting data to the FDA in the hopes of snagging authorization for children age 6 to under 12. Pfizer's vaccine is already allowed for children as young as 5.
So, Is Moderna Stock A Buy Or Sell Right Now?
Moderna stock isn't a buy right now. Shares aren't forming a definitive chart pattern.
The company has managed to put together strong sales growth. Analysts expect that to continue this year. Further, they see the company as solidly profitable in the near future. But analysts call for both metrics to decline in 2023.
Shares have a weak RS Rating and the company's Composite Rating is below the upper echelon of stocks.
It will be important to watch Moderna's post-Covid efforts. That could help stoke both MRNA stock and the biotech company's financials.
To find the best stocks to buy and watch, check out IBD Stock Lists. Make sure to also keep tabs on stocks to buy or sell.
Follow Allison Gatlin on Twitter at @IBD_AGatlin.
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