Tesla (TSLA) is expected to report its third-quarter vehicle deliveries and production numbers in the coming days and analysts are expecting record global Tesla deliveries for Elon Musk's EV giant. Tesla stock was little changed ahead of the release.
XThe company generally reports on the second day of the new quarter, which would be Sunday.
Globally, production capacity is ramping up, but demand in China appears to be a concern. Nevertheless, internally Tesla is expecting a "very high volume" of vehicle deliveries in the third quarter, according to an internal email obtained by Electrek.
Analysts estimates deliveries will be in the range of 350,000-370,000. That would be a significant jump from the record of 310,000 deliveries set in Q1 2022. Tesla reported Q2 deliveries at 254,695, down nearly 18% vs. Q1 but up 26.5% vs. Q2 2021. The Covid-related Shanghai plant shutdown and slow return to full steam hampered production. Tesla produced 258,580 vehicles in Q2 vs. 305,407 in Q1.
Given the big Tesla expansions over the last six months, the increase is relatively modest. Tesla Berlin opened in March and the Austin plant in April, though those sites are still slowing ramping up. The Shanghai site got a big capacity upgrade in July and early August, with those moves temporarily limiting output.
Tesla China Demand Concerns
There are indications that Tesla demand is not strong enough to meet the increased capacity.
However, Reuters reported Tuesday Tesla plans to keep production at the upgraded Shanghai plant at around 93% of capacity through the end of year. The recent improvements to the plant increased production capacity by almost a third.
Tesla China wait times for new vehicles have also come down sharply in recent weeks. Tesla is reportedly offering a new insurance subsidy, serving as a de facto price cut.
There is speculation that Tesla will announce an outright China price reduction in early October. Another option is for Tesla to export an even-greater share of its Shanghai output.
But European backlogs are also starting to come down, with Tesla recently introducing a shorter-range Model Y there, often at a much-lower price than the prior base model. Also, the Berlin plant should slowly account for a greater share of Tesla's European sales.
Tesla new-car registrations in China did jump in the Sept. 19-25 week, but September China deliveries still seem likely to undershoot bullish estimates from a few weeks ago.
Adding to the pressure: BYD (BYDDF) and Nio (NIO) have just introduced Model 3 rivals, with the Model Y likely to face growing competition over the next year.
Tesla EVs
Tesla produces the luxury Model S sedan and Model X SUV as well as the Model 3 sedan and Model Y crossover. However, the vast majority are the Model 3 and Model Y models.
Other vehicles, including the Semi and Cybertruck have been pushed back multiple times. Musk has said the Cybertruck is on track for mid-2023 and that the Tesla Semi will begin deliveries by the end of 2022.
The Q3 Tesla deliveries will come on the heels of Tesla's AI Day on Friday, in which the company showcased its latest Optimus humanoid robot prototype, as well as AI advances in driver-assist software. Musk tweeted that the event was primarily a pitch to recruit AI and robotics engineers.
Tesla Stock
Tesla stock fell 1 cent to 268.20 during Friday's up-and-down market trading. Shares are modestly below the 50-day moving average, with the 200-day line just above that. TSLA stock hit resistance at the 50-day line during the week, then briefly undercut recent lows on Friday morning.
Tesla stock are in a long consolidation with a 402.73 buy point, according to MarketSmith. Investors could view the pattern as a long double-bottom base, offering a 384.35 entry.
But there's also a smaller bottoming base within the wide and loose action of the past year. Now looking like a small double-bottom base, TSLA stock has a 313.90 entry.
Tesla has a Composite Rating of 88. It has a 80 Relative Strength Rating, an exclusive IBD Stock Checkup gauge for share price movement with a 1 to 99 score. The rating shows how a stock's performance over the last 52 weeks holds up against all the other stocks in IBD's database. The EPS rating is 77.
Clash Of The Titans: Tesla Vs. BYD
Tesla China Rivals
Musk and Tesla are also facing new competition in the China EV marketplace from BYD, Nio, Li Auto (LI), and XPeng (XPEV). Nio, Li Auto and Xpeng will report September deliveries on Saturday, with BYD sales also due in early October.
NIO And BYD Target Europe In Challenge To Tesla
BYD, the world's largest maker of EV and plug-in hybrids and China's largest seller of pure electrics, is taking on Tesla's Model 3 directly for the first time. The BYD Seal, with similar specs but $10,000 less than a Model 3, kicked off deliveries in late August.
Luxury EV startup Nio began deliveries of the ET5, a Model 3 rival on Sept. 30.
Nio is also hoping to outsell XPeng and Li Auto in September and the third quarter, with the China startups also due to report EV sales, likely on Oct. 1.
On Sept. 26, Li Auto lowered Q3 delivery guidance to 25,000, down from 27,000-29,000 prior. Li sold 10,422 EVs in July and 4,571 in August, so 10,507 is in sight for September.
BYD and Nio are also looking to solidify footing in the European market, after starting sales in Norway in 2021. BYD presented three all-electric models for Europe at a virtual event on Sept. 28, and Nio is set for a similar event Oct. 7. BYD recently began deliveries in Australia, India and several other Asian nations, launching in several other markets in the next few months.
Please follow Kit Norton on Twitter @KitNorton for more coverage.
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The post Tesla Deliveries Will Hit A Record; Will It Be Enough Amid Demand Concerns? appeared first on Investor's Business Daily.
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